With rising temperatures, shifting weather patterns, and increased frequency of extreme events, the MENA region is at the forefront of the global climate crisis
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is no stranger to extreme weather, but recent research highlights an alarming trend: The climate in this arid region is changing more rapidly and dramatically than ever before.
Dr. Diana Francis and Dr. Ricardo Fonseca published a comprehensive study on these climatic shifts in Scientific Reports. They used a combination of observational data and advanced climate models and found significant changes in the region’s climate over the past four decades, with even more drastic shifts expected by the end of the 21st century.
One of the most striking trends is the increase in air temperatures across the MENA region. Between 1981 and 2020, the annual air temperature rose by an average of 0.36°C per decade. Summers are warming even faster, with temperatures climbing by 0.45°C per decade. The region has already experienced record-breaking heatwaves, such as July 2023 when temperatures soared to 51°C in Algeria, 49°C in Tunisia, and 46°C in Jordan. These extreme temperatures are dangerous, leading to widespread power outages, health crises, and even fatalities.
Drs. Francis and Fonseca also noted shifts in weather patterns. In the summer, convective regions move northward, while in winter, they shift eastward. These changes are influenced by alterations in the location and intensity of thermal lows and subtropical highs, which in turn affect the amount of dust in the atmosphere and cloud cover. The subtropical highs, for example, are projected to move poleward by 1.5° due to the expansion of the Hadley cells, a crucial component of Earth’s atmospheric circulation system which transport heat from the equator to higher latitudes.
Dr. Francis says the projections are concerning: “By the latter half of this century, up to half of the MENA population — around 600 million people — could be exposed to super- and ultra-extreme heatwaves. Temperatures during these events could reach and even exceed 56°C, lasting for several weeks. And even though the region has seen increased aridity, extreme rainfall events are becoming more intense. As sea surface temperatures rise, the atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to more severe precipitation events.”
The MENA region’s vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated by its limited water resources and rapid population growth. Higher temperatures and changing precipitation patterns threaten water security, agriculture, and public health. The combination of heat and humidity in some areas has already surpassed the thresholds for human habitability, a situation likely to worsen with continued warming.
Understanding these climatic changes is essential for developing strategies to adapt and mitigate their effects.
“Renewable energy, particularly solar power, has seen exponential growth in the region and will play a crucial role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions,” Dr. Francis says. “Improved water management, resilient infrastructure, and robust health systems are also critical to coping with the impacts of climate change.”
This research underscores the importance of continuous monitoring and advanced climate modeling. A clearer picture of how the climate is changing and will continue to change will allow policymakers and scientists to better prepare for and respond to the challenges ahead. The stakes are high, but with informed action and innovative solutions, a more resilient future for the MENA region is possible.
Jade Sterling
Science Writer
16 July 2024
